The Tunisian prodigy faces global paralysis!

We no longer know which foot to dance on in this country. National institutions sometimes present conflicting balance sheets. Better, the national balances do not coincide with the international reality. Where is Tunisia today according to official figures?

The Tunisian Investment Authority (Tia) has just published a diluted report on the investments declared above 15 million dinars for the first half of 2022. The institution has thus identified the declaration of fifteen projects for a cumulative investment framework of 2,231.1 million dinars which enabling the creation of 4,295 jobs, thus registering a significant increase of 280% in terms of investments, which is explained by the declaration of a cement factory project at an investment cost of 950 million dinars (MD) during the month of March 2022. Excluding this investment drive, the investments would registered until May 2022 have registered an increase of 118%.

At the same time, the Agency for the Promotion of Industry and Innovation (Apii) has just published its report for the five months of 2022 for notified investments in the industrial sector and shows a decrease of 8.1%, investments go from 987.7 MD to 907.5 MD. The number of notified projects has also decreased by 9.3%, from 1,424 to 1,292 projects in the same period, enabling the creation of 19,883 jobs against 19,731 jobs a year earlier (+0.8%).

The agency also specifies that investments relating to projects costing more than 5 MD registered a decrease of 12.4% from 595.2 MD to 521.4 MD in the same period mentioned above.

Radio silence from the Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (Fipa), the latest published report is for the first quarter of 2022, but which in turn is very flattering with a 73% increase in foreign investment, which reaches 596 MD against 344.6 MD .

Foreign investment balance for the first quarter of 2022 in MD

On the inflation side, the consumer price index is experiencing significant increases across the board, reaching peaks not seen in 20, 30 or even 40 years.

In the US, inflation reached 9.1% in June over a year, the strongest price rise since 1981. Ditto for the UK, where inflation also hit 9.1% in May over a year to reach its highest level since March 1982 For euro area as a whole, the European statistical institute Eurostat reports inflation of 8.6% in June, over the last twelve months. A level not seen since the start of publication of the indicator in January 1997.

Overview of international inflation rates according to Global-rate’s website

In Tunisia, the National Institute of Statistics (INS) estimates that inflation reached 8.1% in June 2022, a rate not reached in more than thirty years. The problem is that the experts agree that the curve no longer corresponds to Tunisians’ real consumption, the last update dates from 2015 (seven years, while the norm is five years).

Inflation in Tunisia since 1984 to June 2022

On the foreign trade side, in May 2022 the INS settled for a brief summary, whereas for several months it had been used to producing a detailed current price report and a detailed fixed price report at the end of each month. . Worse, today is the 14th of July and the institute has yet to release the figures for June, whereas its services generally do not go beyond the 9th of the month.

It must be said that the latest figures were alarming with a worsening trade deficit of 67.13%. The trade balance stood at -9,929.4 MD against -5,941.1 MD in the five months of 2021. The coverage ratio lost 5.7 points compared to the same period of the year 2021 to 70.1%.

Gold and for two days the euro is on par with the dollar, the first since the introduction of the European currency twenty years ago. Something that will have a greater impact on the situation in Tunisia, as imports are generally in dollars, while exports are in euros. The fall of the euro against the dollar is sure to increase the country’s trade deficit further.

By correlating all these factors with the country’s budgetary difficulties, the absence of an agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the consequences of the war in Ukraine (imported inflation, increase in the price of raw materials, increase in the price of energy, increase in grain, vegetable oils and several food products), the situation in Tunisia is likely to worsen. But given the lack of viability due to the information published in spades, no one has an accurate idea of ​​the real situation in Tunisia.

Are national institutions trying to embellish the figures of the Tunisian economy? Faced with the lack of information, the contradictory figures between them and with the international situation, it is now becoming legitimate to question the reliability of the indicators presented.

Meanwhile NOUIRA

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