EcoRéseau Business – The strange theory of Doktor Minc

Estimated reading time: 2 minutes

IN The echoespostulates Alain Minc that, thanks to the tariff shield, France could within two years find itself the most competitive nation in Europe! (opens a new tab)

The somewhat brilliant cruelty of the historian and the futurist Emmanuel Todd no longer need to be proven. A very English sense of irony. “I have a certain statistician’s admiration for Minc… Minc is wrong 100% of the time, and in probability theory it is much harder to be wrong 100% of the time than to be right 75% of the time. Todd, on the other hand, has enjoyed some international respect since he announced in 1976 The last fallThe collapse of the USSR fifteen years in advance.

Alain Minc. The one who whispers great fortunes in the ear. A figure of the XVIe district. And yet for many it embodies the perfect example of the compass pointing south. A constant mistake that is almost uncanny. This very close to French presidents, from Mitterrand to Macron (except Chirac, who openly avoided him), was not always right in everything. That’s the least we can say. In 1995, he confidently predicted Balladur’s victory. So from Jospin. So from Juppe. So from DSK. Then Aubry. After that Pécresse. Fortunately, he doesn’t bet on horse racing! Globalization promised him a happy and prosperous adventure… In 2003, the same Minc was convinced of this: Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was full of “weapons of mass destruction”. A certainty in his opinion. But we are still looking for them…

It is therefore necessary to bring careful tweezers to study the predictions of this undoubtedly brilliant circuit … but mounted upside down. The echoes gave him the floor in their edition of Friday, September 23. The former auditor, sitting comfortably in his chair, wept when asked about inflation. “There would be cause for concern if nothing had been done, but the state has been able to take matters into its own hands and act. The economic policy pursued in France is very wise, although I am not quite sure that their authors fully understood their action. In short, everything runs smoothly.

Even better. Not only must this inflationary crisis be put into perspective, but also, in his opinion, the measures taken by Emmanuel Macron et al. could result in a real boost for the French economy. Alain Minc, as we knew ardent defender of debtnow seems to delight in seeing our deficits thunder into the upper echelons of government spending.

All is well Madame la Marquise!

The doctor delivers his diagnosis: thanks to the tariff shield and the abundance of checks signed by the government, we have inflation that runs “around 6% when it comes to around 10% for many of our neighbors”. Safe. Undeniable even. In France, the state bears most of the inflationary shock. A choice that stands in contrast to the British example, where it is the households that bear the brunt of the battle. With one big difference: The tax burden is much lower there…

Here is his big theory: “Wage demands are based on much lower inflation expectations here than elsewhere. We are the only continental European country in this matter. It’s a great thing. If, over two years, wages rise much more among our neighbors than among us, it will allow us to regain labor competitiveness. And we are talking about a positive shock, which could be 8% in the period. It is the result of a smart use of the budget weapon. predicts Alain Minc.

In short, thanks to the tariff screen, the energy check, the fuel oil check and the wood check; our country should achieve 8% competitiveness! Enough to overtake Germany, Spain, Great Britain and Italy… France would thus find itself the most competitive in Europe with this crazy handball. Almost a miracle.

Who wants to live will see… And who wants to live will pay.

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