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The French research institute Xerfi has just published a note on the situation (somewhat presumed), which business leaders who are still beating should not read. But it is better to understand what awaits us.
The good thing about forecasters is that they do not always predict the worst. The 2023 scenario just announced by Xerfi is “gray”. In other words, it could turn black, and the private research institute, a specialist in sector-specific economic analysis in France and around the world, even outlines the storms in continuation of the analysis he has just published.
When we know the seriousness and degree of prognosis verified by the French institute, there is unfortunately little chance that the projection that the experts have given us for the coming year will be light gray … I invite you to drink the sentence for the waste, but the overly long summary that I draw from this will give you a little idea of the reasons why we in the world and especially in France lived almost better at that time covid – who seems to invite himself to the party again.
Everything happens as if the Folketing and the government had already acted in year II of the quinquennium II, with a president of total discretion calculating which new prime minister in his time will be able to raise an Elisabeth worn up to Borne.
So let’s dive into the aforementioned predictions so much the more justified as most of the other forecasters follow the same scenario.
- An already “tangible” economic downturn when the purchasing power of consumers who chop off their famous covid time savings continues to decline. Xerfi is emitting a stagnation that will halt the recovery in the “glowing six months” that we have just enjoyed. Companies will downgrade investments and recruitment. 2022 GDP at 2.5% growth but at 0.6% next year. A number that Xerfi describes as a “deep recession”.
- Central banks are navigating in the long run between structural inflation if they trade moderately and financial crash if they suddenly raise interest rates. Plague or cholera? So far, the flu, in the sense of seizing: inflation will set in.
- Inflation in energy costs, but now also in food, services, manufactured goods. After all, Xerfi’s gray scenario predicts only “at” 2.8% inflation in 2023 (the promise no one believed in by François Villeroy de Galhau – Banque de France – and Christine Lagarde – IMF) as long as oil and agricultural prices normalize.
• The employment we gurgled about by calling it “almost full” will inevitably deteriorate at the start of the school year. So that Large angle which we set aside for changes in the pay system in the next issue ofEcoNetwork Business will find its full purpose. Net job creation has already been “halved since the end of 2021”, said Xerfi. If health and education try to compensate for their outrageous shortage of human resources, these non-market activities will not compensate for the lost industrial jobs. Corporate failures that were rejected by the aid and that were feared end up showing up. Our forecasts mention 40,000 job losses and an unemployment rate of over 8%.
• If the purchasing power bill, which “the parliamentary minorities” still will not reject, “absorbs the shock”, aid will not be continued at all: in 2023 we will only talk about it. Only the “expected fall in inflation” will limit the damage.
- By keeping as a bulb for thirst the amount of savings saved (not by all) for two years of pandemic, the French will not spend at any cost in 2023, although the coveted cars in 2022 will eventually come out of the chains.
- Thanks to the still positive morale of business leaders, to their willingness to believe that fluctuations are currently “transient”, investment is still there. But Xerfi sees the threat of a decline in exports (the global economy, of course, but also insufficient French supply), the rise in wages at the end of the year and the weakness in consumption. Upcoming adjustments that, after all, could save R&D and strategic digital technologies.
So much for the “gray” projections of the private institute.
But if we remove a little white from the mixture and add some black ink, 2023 would even be one annus horribilis for France and the planet still waiting for billions from the transition when the world’s forests go up in smoke.
And if, pessimize the experts, and if the war in Ukraine becomes more radical, as waved by Putin’s threat, more inflated and more aggressive than ever, with its procession of energy irritation?
And if did destabilized powers in turn play their role, such as China, Iran or Turkey?
What if China accumulates loopholes so that the shortage worsens in the West?
And if the financial sphere experienced an “asset price collapse” – with a detrimental effect on indebted investment funds? What if government debt exploded under the influence of rising interest rates at the risk of wiping out the world’s growth potential ‘? And if, and if the currency war returns, the division of the capacities of European countries … (you will read for yourself the other threats, I have already exceeded the limits of a reasonable editorial …).
Between the almost certain of the inevitable effects that will weigh on the year 2023 and the serious risks that could set the world on fire, we are left to hold on to the idea that the worst is never certain. But that is not the case when a society is cohesive and a government retains the means to act. But the case of France without an absolute majority – like the insecurity in England, like the return of suicide bombers in Japan, like the fragility of the Democrats in the United States – darkens the gray scenario a little further.
Such as the hummingbird, which brings its drop of water to fight the fire, let’s go with our drops of water, our perseverance, our imagination, our rejection of discouragement. Data that forecasters can not quantify …