Old real estate: soon the break?

Charles Marinakis
© DR

According to figures compiled by Century 21, the rise in property prices in the old one is particularly strong between 1.eh semester 2021 and 1eh half of 2022: + 10.7% for houses, + 7.4% for apartments; with records at stake: 2,552 € / m² on average for houses, “driving the market crazy” according to the new president Charles Marinakis, and 4,061 € / m² for apartments.

“These historically high price levels have a direct impact on activity: the number of transactions fell in the housing segment (-7.9%) and increased very little in the apartment segment (+ 1.7% in one year)”, sums up the head of Century 21 .

Once this observation has been made, Century 21 would like to make a few nuances, given the results for Q2 2022: a slowdown in prices is on the way, more markedly in the apartment segment than in houses where the French appetite. is still strong, which has direct consequences for the activity: it rises again on the 1steh semester 2022.

Among buyers, only those over 50 – generally second-time buyers who benefit from a larger personal contribution – have seen their share increase: they now lead 34.8% of transactions. The most significant increase is seen among those over 60, whose share among buyers increases by +9.5%.

The distribution by destination of the goods has changed slightly: 63.4% of the transactions are dedicated to the purchase of a main home, 29.8% of the acquisitions are set aside for rental investments (-2.3% in one year). Purchases of holiday homes have fallen -6.3% to represent 6.9% of transactions.

Paris is not France

In Paris, contrary to national trends, prices were stable over 12 months (+ 0.1% between 1 months.eh semester 2021 and 1eh semester 2022); they even tend to fall back a bit on 1eh half of 2022. However, the price per square meter in Paris (€ 10,299 on average) is still higher than in 2019. This rebalancing is bearing fruit and the sky in the Paris market looks good: the number of sales has increased by 17 0.3% over 12 months and activity on 1eh half of 2022 is extremely lively.

Dynamics yes, madness no: the average sales time has stretched over 12 months to 78 days, the highest level ever recorded in the capital. In comparison, these sales times were 44 days in 2011. The purchase amounts remain significant: it is now necessary to use an average of € 535,480 to buy a Parisian apartment for an area of ​​approximately 52 m².

Rising interest rates, combined with rent controls and new rules on the energy performance of homes, have put an end to investors’ impulses, notes Century 21. Less and less profitable and more and more restrictive, so the share of rental investment in purchases is falling. by -18.6% to return to a level in 2018 (26.3% at 1.eh semester 2022; they were 26.8% in 2018).

New record in Île-de-France

The price per square meter of houses in the Ile-de-France region continued to rise sharply between 1.eh semester 2021 and 1eh half of 2022 (+ 9.1%), which sets a new record of € 3,736 / m² on average. The average purchase price for a house reached unprecedented heights: € 424,473 (+ 9.8% over 12 months).

But activity is no longer there and the number of transactions fell by -10.6% over a year. 1 o’clockeh half of 2022, prices are adjusting and the increase is more moderate. Sales times, over a year, become even shorter; they stand at 61 days in the home segment, i.e. the shortest duration observed since 2011.

The apartment market is completely different: prices have been stable for one year (4,622 € / m² now), the sales period has been extended by seven days (73 days on average), and activity has fallen more moderately (-5.3% between 1).eh semester 2021 and 1eh semester 2022); it has even risen sharply in recent months.

The share of acquisitions allocated to investments, which had reached its highest level a year ago, fell (-9.1%), but remained at a higher level than in 2020 (24% at 1).eh semester 2022).

The Regions, winners of Covid

In the regions, the houses remain the big winners of the post-covid movements. Undoubtedly, the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region has seen its prices rise the fastest in one year: +15.5% for houses (if the average price per square meter is EUR 4,270) and +10.8% for apartments (EUR 4,508). / m²). Conversely, the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and Bourgogne-Franche-Comté show relatively moderate increases (between 7 and 7.3% for houses and between 4.7 and 5.3% for apartments).

This development further widens the gap between the regions: the average price per square meter for a house is € 1,561 in Burgundy-Franche-Comté when it is € 4,270 in Paca. An apartment can be purchased for an average of € 2,092 / m² in Grand-Est compared to more than double (€ 4,508 / m²) in Paca.

“There is no doubt that with 5.2% inflation to date, the issue of purchasing power will be crucial for the vast majority of households, and the rest for a living will be squeezed when they take out loans from banks. ” notes Charles Marinakis. “This is likely to weigh on market dynamics in the coming months and should lead to a significant slowdown in the rise in property prices. In that case, it is good news, for this price reduction is desirable and desirable.”

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