That transition around electric car is confirmed. that European Parliament approved the European Commission proposal on 9 June 2022, which allows the total cessation of sales of thermobiles to 1uh January 2035. Two exceptions take into account, however: they concern both brands, which produce less than 10,000 cars a year, for which the deadline is extended by one year (1uh January 2036) as well as luxury cars produced in very small series (less than 1,000 copies) and which could still run on a heat engine until a date yet to be determined.
This decision however, poses a number of Questions. Resigned, the manufacturers are of course also worried, because to ensure the transition, it is not enough to put more electric cars on the market. These should actually be affordableprobably a little more efficiently (autonomy and recharging) than what they are now that it charging network be up to it, while industrially it would also be necessary to be sure that raw material will adequately be available. But nothing is less certain.
In this uncertainty, certain voices are raised, and in particular the essayist and former professor of electrical engineering, Maxime De Blasi who spoke in a forum on the Marianne.net medium. For him, the electric car would be one organic nonsensebut also a future social catastrophe.
The man in question believes he is total illusory to think that the electric car will contribute to limit global warming, because its share will be marginal. He estimates him (or estimated him because we have already passed on his words) to only 1% of reduction greenhouse gas emissions at the same time as it will also cause major environmental problems due to the raw materials and their processing into the batteries.
For Maxime De Blasi it is restrict car use in general which would be more productive because it would be the beginning of a solution to remove the clogging of the roads and the already saturated urban areas. Yet it is in these urban spaces that the future will be played out. And that you need a leverage point. Maxime De Blasi notes that this is the case every year 1 million electric cars sold in the EU and that the goal is to exceed 15 million. in 2035. However, these are already 300 million thermobiles in circulation currently a significant amount and which will still be operational (or to a large extent) within 13 years.
Emissions higher than advertised
Maxime De Blasi’s criticism of MEPs is that they did not take into account worldwide electric car life cyclebut only its official emissions when it is in circulation, ie. 0g / km CO2. However, this vision would be complete wrongas indicated by a online calculator luxembourgish imagined by Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology and which compares the emissions from all thermal and electrical models. In use, it shows, depending on the energy mix in each country, that the emissions from electrical models are still reaching between 25 and 50% of them in a thermal model. We are therefore far from 0 per cent.
Therefore, Maxime De Blasi – who seems to be the only one who has made the calculation – estimates that greenhouse gas emissions (CO2 in this case) will only fall by 1% per year, because the electric car fleet from 2035 will only account for 5% of the total, all in a road sector whose growth is 2% per year. Because let’s not forget that these are only Special cars which is currently affected by this ban. Trucks or heavy civilian vehicles are not affected.
Why ? The author does not deal with this topic, but it is because battery electric trucks are not yet developed, or if they are, they remain inefficient (weight, autonomy, mass of raw materials) and too expensive to be competitive. For themhydrogen potentially remains a solution if one wants to switch to a (relatively) “zero emissions” vehicle, but once again neither the infrastructure nor the market is mature, while the prices also remain very high.
What environmental costs?
Maxime De Blasi also reveals his fears resource looting which the transition to the electric car represents. According to his calculations, an electric car requires from 250 to 600 kg batterywhich represents 6 million tons of batteries for 15 million cars a year. And we’re still talking only about Europe.
In addition, one must also take into account electronic components many of which are in electric cars, which also weighs on the environment. The question also remains as to the use of resources that do not currently exist in Europe and which ones impact also itenvironment (agricultural land) and is energy intensive.
Even more serious for De Blasi, the Recycling batteries would also be one organic nonsensebecause with only 1,000 to 1,500 possible charging / discharging cycles, the essayist believes that it is only one ” decycling “, because 50% of the components is not currently recycled. This suggests that much work is still needed in the sector.
In addition, we may also ask ourselves the question of the areas that are poured into the disassembly of our electronic objects (hence our future cars) and which will crumble under waste without having the capacity to absorb it. For De Blasi, “their recycling at 100% promised by the EU is a utopia, while more than three quarters of plastic and 80% of electronic waste are still not recycled! »
What social costs?
Finally, the essayist looks on social consequences of this transition to the electric car, which costs twice as much as thermobiles at present. due to their battery and their built-in electronics. In essence, is growth in sales of electric cars is today the result of large grants even corresponds to 25% of the price of a car (however, this is not the case in Belgium, unless we consider the deduction mechanism for the self-employed and companies).
Maxime De Blasi therefore raises the question of these pharaonic public spending and he feels that their financing is not sustainablebecause i Francewould this in 2035 and for 2 million annual cars represent 1% of the government’s annual budget, i.e. 10 billion euros. If this view is not sustainable over time, it means that it must be reduced, which by domino effect will increase the inequalities between the strata of the population.
What is the solution then?
For Maxime De Blasi, this must come from one deep mobility review which is more dependent on the sharing of transport vehicles, in other words carpooling or short-term rental. The specialist also believes that a most cars spend their lives stationary (it was recently estimated at 80% of a car’s lifetime). However, it is only by driving a lot that the electric car can effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
This strategy must therefore be favored and aimed at primarily for those who drive a lot – such as the freight sector, taxis, delivery services, etc. – “to fight effectively against ozone concentrations and air pollution peaks, rather than wasting public money in a net loss, or almost. It’s still what I call “strategic ecology”, where consumers, the planet and producers are winners, “continues Maxime De Blasi.
De Blasi believes that validation of MEPs was probably a little fast and that reflection whether the subject is not enough. Logically, the essayist reminds us that the most organic car is the one we obviously do not produce, or which we keep for as long as possible. Too late Unfortunately, the transition is underway and we risk it pay the price, Literally as well as figuratively. And finally, the climate is also reminiscent of Maxime De Blasi.