(AOF) – Invest Securities lowers its Buy recommendation to Neutral and its price target from 38 euros to 20 euros on Atos after the presentation of the strategic plan. The design studio emphasizes that the group’s situation “has deteriorated to proportions that are difficult to imagine”. “In particular, the recovery of outsourcing activities (TechFondation) should be longer and above all much more expensive than expected with 850 million euros in restructuring costs for a recovered EBITA of only 200 million”, adds the broker.
And this to warn: “If the plan is financed with debt under the plan presented, the room for maneuver is narrow and the risk of a capital increase exists, especially if the macroeconomic deterioration should call into question the recovery plan.”.
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– International leader in digital transformation established in 1997, European leader in cloud, cybersecurity and supercomputers;
– € 10.8 billion activity, divided into 3 divisions – infrastructure and data management for 54% of sales, business and platform solutions for 34% and big data and cybersecurity for 10%;
– Geographical balance between revenue: 23% of sales in North America, 25% in Northern Europe, 23% in Central Europe and 22% in Southern Europe;
– Sustainable digital transformation business model;
– Open capital (9.96% for Siemens Pension Fund and 2.2% for employees), Bertrand Meunier as Chairman of the Board of 13 members, Rodolphe Belmer as CEO;
– Solid balance with a debt / equity ratio of 28% and a leverage of 1.9, which is why management excludes any capital increase.
– New strategy: refocus on digitization, decarbonisation, security and the cloud, which should contribute to 65% of medium-term revenue / recovery in Germany / towards the sale of on-site infrastructure and traditional data center activities, ie. 1/5. of income;
– Innovation strategy developed in 18 R & D centers with a portfolio of 3,000 patents: open innovation through partnerships with university centers (quantum computers, exascale computers, artificial intelligence, HPC, multicultural leadership, etc.), with alliances with other actors (AWS, Dell, Google, Huma, Microsoft, OVHCloud, Sparkle, etc.) and with customers / 2 scientific communities of expert collaborators in the group / Scaler program for collaboration with 50 start-ups;
– Environmental strategy supported by Digital Transformation Factory, Hybrid Cloud, “Business Accelerators” solutions, “Connected Intelligence” and “Digital Workplace” and aims to meet 3 major challenges: CO2 neutrality from 2028 and halving emissions by 2025 vs 2021 / sale of decarbonisation solutions, enhanced by the acquisition of EcoAct / investment in hydrogen supercomputers and quantum technologies / launch of the 1st “green” loan;
– Strengthening security with the acquisition of the British company Cloudreach and the opening of a sovereign security center in Bulgaria;
Visibility of the activity with an order book corresponding to 2.1 years of turnover.
– Slowing down order intake and reducing the duration of new contracts;
– Russia-Ukraine war: low impact on income (0.4%) but high on labor, services previously provided by Russia have been transferred to India and Turkey;
– Expected rapid recovery after the loss in 2021 based on rumors of takeover bids from Airbus, Orange, etc. and the listing of BDA and security activities;
– After a start to the year marked by a decline in sales, the 2022 target was confirmed, with revenues ranging from +0.5 to + 1.5%, an operating margin of 3 to 5% and free cash flow between + € 150m. and € 200 million.
The talent war has been further intensified by the announcement of Facebook, which intends to make 10,000 hires within five years in Europe. The lack of human resources is not limited to France or Europe: it is global. Thus, 1.2 million computer engineers are expected to be missing by 2026 in the United States. In France, according to Numeum, the association of the digital sector, there is a shortage of about 10,000 computer engineers out of a total of 600,000 people employed by software publishers and digital service companies (SSII). If the phenomenon is not new, it is amplified. This is reinforced both by the hiring of certain companies looking for developers to internalize their significant digital projects, and by the strong ambitions of certain start-ups.