IDF: The new collective housing market is still slowing down (Grecam)

Grecam’s annual financial report
© DR

According to the latest annual financial report from Grecam (attached), a research and consulting firm specializing in real estate, the Parisian market for new collective housing is slowing down more than ever. In 2021, only 280 retail units were sold, a decrease of 16% compared to 2020 – a year marked by a historically low level of sales as a result of the health crisis and the local elections.

“Until 2002, the Parisian market sold between 1,500 and 2,000 homes a year on average,” Grecam explains. Between 2003 and 2016, a slower cycle took place at a rate of 700 annual sales on average. Over the past five years, this slowdown has increased : about 530 reservations per year on average. »

The location of new supply remains quite similar to that of 2020. The programs are still concentrated in the 13.e (ZAC Paris Rive gauche includes three major programs of more than 100 games), but also from now on in the 20e district, which presents a plurality of small operations. “If these two districts in 2017 represented 22% of the capital’s sales, they covered more than 43% in 2021,” notes Grecam.

Extension of flow times

The extension of sales times amounts to +2.71% in 2021, ie 21.5 months of stock sales time. This is mainly due to slow sales rates, averaging 1.29 bookings / month and rarely over 2.5 for the largest operations. “These” mixed “results are partly explained by the sharp rise in the average price, which rose from € 11,274 / m2 HP at the end of 2017 to € 13,843 / m2 HP in 2021.

Several extraordinary programs (7e and 14e arrondissements) are located in a range from 20,641 to 25,181 € / m² HK. With the 20e arrondissement still offers an offer of less than € 12,500 / m² average HP.

“We note a decline in inventories in the Paris market in 2021 (-14%), mainly due to the numerous block sales made during the year 2021 (403 block sales against 280 retail sales). However, they did not really clean up the market. Since 2017, sales time has continued to increase, from 6.6 months in 2017 to more than 21 months in 2021. ”

Renewed interest from institutional investors

“Since the covid crisis, we have observed a real renewed interest from institutional investors in the housing market,” Grecam said.

Over the past two years, the most emblematic block sale has been the “Wood Up” operation (123 housing units) in ZAC Paris Rive Gauche (13)e), Compagnie de Phalsbourg and REI Habitat, which were fully acquired by Gecina. Under this type of bulk sales, acquisition prices are now approaching retail prices. Depending on the amount of homes and locations, a discount of 3 to 7% is observed relative to the original selling price.

Faced with the rise in prices on the intramural market in Paris, a dynamic shift of late first-time buyers to western Paris (Issy-les-Moulineaux, Boulogne-Billancourt, Puteaux, Montrouge and Saint-Cloud…) has also been observed. for a few years, Grecam notes. These territories now exceed the average of 10,000 € / m² HP.

“Today, these transfer dynamics tend to refocus on the north and east of Paris and offer prices that are still attractive. With the arrival of an increasing number of Parisian customers, these areas are experiencing a rapid rise in average prices. For example, prices in the municipality of Saint-Ouen sharply (+ 40%) between 2017 and 2022, approaching the threshold of € 8,000 / m² HP and resulting in a growing share of Parisian transfer customers. »

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