In 2035, Europe will drive alone in electric cars

USe is not a detail, while the low-cost car has been praised for the last twenty years as the model for reasonable mobility, to get rid of the useless swelling of the superfluous, this model has lived. Provided that all European Member States ratify Parliament’s radical vote, which from 2035 condemns the sale of any new model equipped with a heat engine, all Europeans acquiring a new car on that date will be condemned for only one choice: an electric car.

We have already here commented in detail on the advantages and disadvantages of each of the technical formulas. But one has never been condemned by the other, and it required a dictation from the European Parliament to impose the electric car in the first place. A door is on hold for other solutions with more distant appearance such as hydrogen, but we have understood that it is the heat engine that we had to deny.

The internal combustion engine battle continues to rage in the European Parliament

According to the adopted text, 100% of new vehicles must really be “zero emissions”, imposing on users and manufacturers a revolution that many do not want. At least not according to this smart calendar, which jeopardizes European technological superiority in the sector and redistributes the cards in favor of its competitors, much less well placed until then. It should also be noted that the so-called so-called “car lobby” has become a balloon that dieselgate helps, and that it is indeed a green lobby that dominates the debates today.

The Dacia model in play

But it is not so certain that all Member States validate this plan without giving way, especially Romania, the country with rustic Dacia (the electric spring is made in China). And this despite the fact that Germany, for its part, seems to have been negotiating a spectacular turn in recent days, and even questions the exemption of free speeds on 70% of the motorways across the Rhine. It is a good way to reduce the handicap of electric cars in terms of thermals as the plan that would accompany a harmonized reduction of speed to 120 km / h or even 110. Since we can no longer drive fast and long without stopping, what good is it? to brace yourself against the electric motor?

The refractory will still be able to stick to the used car, as everything that runs before 2035 will be able to continue driving afterwards with, we bet, restrictions on access to city centers that are already in place with low-emission zones (ZFE). Nevertheless, Europe will be the first major market to swing ahead of China and the US, but Norway has already beaten the call with a deadline of 2025 and Israel, which is sensitive to oil supplies, in 2030. On the other hand, South America, Africa , Central Europe outside the EU or the rest of Asia and Oceania do not seem to be in a hurry to enter the battery camp.

Who has to pay for the electric car for 100 euros a month?

There is a good reason for this, the electric car is a car for the rich and requires charging infrastructure that is as heavy as it is expensive. And this even though the Macron plan for a car for 100 euros a month has been announced. Because there is a shortage of threatening, and despite the opening of battery production units, the raw materials will run dry. Elon Musk would thus have the project of buying a lithium mine to supply his two million produced Teslas a year. Carlos Tavares has already sounded the alarm for 2024 as he sees the growth in sales of electric cars rising faster than the available batteries.

Electricity helped until when?

Due to European standards, public subsidies and the proliferation of hybrid and electric vehicles, petrol-powered vehicles are declining, victims of the scarcity of components. But it should be noted that the buyer does not give up and is patient with his delivery or possibly chooses light hybrids. These are, above all, a matter of opportunism and represented a quarter of European sales in the first quarter of 2022. It would be wrong to equate them with electric cars, as their autonomy alone on this energy is ridiculous.

Plug-in hybrids represented 8.9% of the market, and pure electrical 10% (+ 53.4% ​​over a year). A spectacular leap, but starting from nothing, we need to put things in perspective. Quite advanced at the moment, they are more and more numerous on especially Dutch, Swedish or German roads, where the standard of living is higher than in France. But they are far from zero emissions, their emissions are even comparable or worse than a petrol car when their owner does not recharge them. And you can actually get tired, because you have to do it almost every day.

One big question remains: “What makes a household switch to two electric vehicles?” Says Eric Kirstetter, of the Roland Berger company. Wise precautions, the last weekends of Ascension Day and Pentecost have showered enthusiasm from some recent converts, some of whom return to the thermobile.

Electricity, a luxury product?

To combat the price difference between thermal and electric, Europe has found the solution: it has taxed the former and subsidized the latter. But parity between the two techniques will not be achieved for several years thanks to volume effects, the Stellantis group (Peugeot, Fiat, etc.) estimated at the beginning of the year between 2025 and 2030. Approximate and this does not take into account the prices of many materials, which have since exploded.

“Electricity will remain structurally quite expensive for a while. We are moving towards a market that is increasingly targeting people who have more resources,” warns Eric Kirstetter. It should in the margin promote the new used market with the unknown remaining condition of the batteries (one third of the value of the vehicle), while a tank of petrol or diesel raises no doubt.The Argus coast has a bright future ahead of it.

Geolocated pollution

France, Germany, Spain, Italy … In each of these countries, the car industry represents a significant proportion of the industrial jobs that are currently under threat. The manufacture of electric vehicles that require less labor than thermal, the energy conversion can destroy many jobs despite the establishment of battery factories. In France, for example, the switch to electric can cause the loss of 65,000 jobs out of the 200,000 in the sector, according to the car platform (PFA).

The paradox of electricity is that it seems very virtuous when used in the city, but it is much less the case for countries where raw materials are extracted. This does not prevent the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) from claiming that “low-carbon electric cars offer the greatest potential for decarbonisation of land transport, in life-cycle analyzes”, that is, including including the manufacture of batteries. There is still the very production of electricity, more advantageous in France with nuclear power than in Germany or Poland, subject to coal.

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