First Mover Asia: For the meta-verse to be a $ 13,000,000 opportunity, many things need to change; Bitcoin breaks over $ 31,000

The Citi report makes bold predictions, but major metaverse platforms struggle to attract engaged users; altcoins are mixed.

Hello. Here’s what’s going on:

Price: A late rise took bitcoin past $ 31,000, where it started the week.

Insight: A Citi report estimates the potential value of the meta-verse at $ 13 trillion, but platforms are struggling to attract committed users.

Technician’s opinion: The price increases were short-lived, indicating a loss of purchasing power.

Prices

Bitcoin (BTC): $ 31,285 -0.07%

Ether (ETH): $ 1,828 -1.5%

The biggest winners

Active Teleprinter Return DACS sector
Chain link LINK +9.1% Computing
gimbal ADA +1.2% Smart contract platform
XRP XRP +0.8% means of payment

The biggest losers

Active Teleprinter Return DACS sector
internet computer PCI -8.7% Computing
Solana FLOOR ,47.4% Smart contract platform
Classic Ethereum ETC. ,04.0% Smart contract platform

Bitcoin is rising late to get back over $ 31,000

Bitcoin moved back above the $ 31,000 threshold on Tuesday after the introduction of a federal bill on cryptocurrency that would address a number of major regulatory issues plaguing the industry. Ether and other major digital assets also rose in the afternoon, regaining ground lost earlier in the week.

The largest market-value cryptocurrency traded above $ 31,200, largely flat over the past 24 hours, but well up from its temporary perch below $ 29,300 in US stock markets early Tuesday morning. Bitcoin had fallen late on Monday and continued to trade in a turbulent range amid widespread investor concern over inflation, geopolitical turmoil and the global economy.

Ether, the second largest crypto, recently fell more than 1%, trading just above the $ 1,800 level. Other major altcoins were mixed with SOL above 7%, but LINK up above 8%. The mood remained bearish.

“Markets continue the long-term downward trend, but the recent favorable cryptocurrency bill in the US provides short-term support as it proposes to squeeze them out unfortunately too large. [Securities and Exchange Commission] in terms of crypto jurisdiction, ”James Key, CEO of Web Protocol 3 Autonomy Network, told CoinDesk.

Stock markets, which have been swinging up and down in recent days as investors digested some bullish goodies as well as their recent bad news regime, rose on Tuesday with the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average all up more than half a percentage point.

However, investors had cause for concern on Tuesday. The World Bank lowered its forecast for global economic growth for 2022 to 2.9%, down from 4.1% in January. World Bank President David Malpass called the “risk” of stagflation “significant”. Later in the day, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told the Senate Finance Committee that she expected inflation to remain high. And less than three weeks after reporting disappointing first-quarter results, Target warned investors that its earnings would decline due to changes in consumer behavior that created imbalances in its inventory.

Many analysts expect the bear market for cryptocurrency to worsen in the near future, and Key noted that previous Bitcoin bear cycles have bottomed out after an 85% drop in value over at least 18 months. The current market has lost almost 60% of its value since reaching a record high in November last year.

“I really doubt it’s the bottom,” Key said. Furthermore, these previous cycles were all in a long-term stock market, whereas this is not true for the first time. When institutional investors reduce the risk, “exotic” and risky assets such as cryptocurrency are the first to be sold, indicating that this time has the potential to become a worse bear market. “

Markets

S&P 500: 4,160 +0.9%

DJIA: 33,180 0.8%

Nasdaq: 12.175%

Gold: $ 1,851 +0.6%

Knowledge

Metaversen struggles to attract committed users

A recent report from Citi calculated the total addressable market value of the metaverse at $ 13 trillion.

If realized, it would be an impressive achievement considering that the gaming market is worth only $ 180 billion, according to the gaming research house NewZoo, and the market for PC gaming hardware is only $ 5.7 billion.

For the most part, the Metaverse Marketplace is just a smaller version of the gaming marketplace. With their exposure to listed cryptocurrency companies, metaverse exchange traded funds (ETFs) have lagged behind their gaming counterparts in the market – despite being largely the same.

Citi says the $ 13 trillion figure comes from all “Internet-related revenue to those from displaced physical world activities.” This provides massive assumptions about the future of e-commerce, as it suggests that all parts of the e-commerce stack will be disrupted by the metaverse.

This is almost similar to the bullish Augmented Reality (AR) mentality of the late 2010s. the mobile center was ready to disrupt many parts of the internet economy, from games to advertising.

But the AR space could not generate useful unicorns. Blippar, a promising London-based startup that merged artificial intelligence (AI) and AR, went bankrupt in late 2018 after raising $ 37 million to a $ 1 billion valuation.

The app promised to revolutionize e-commerce by allowing users to point their phone at any object and get the information that the app could gather from visual recognition and online searches. It can also be used to deliver enhanced 3D visualizations of products that enhance online sales opportunities for retailers. It was all very interesting and promising new revenue models, but the user base never came to anything.

Aside from Blippar, Magic Leap, which released promising introductory visuals that it never managed to deliver, sucked the life out of the capital markets for the AR capital markets, depriving many promising AR startups of their means to create this promised augmented reality. Despite the success of Pokemon Go, there just was not another AR unicorn like this one.

Going back to Citi’s metaverse predictions, like the bull market around AR in the late 2010s, something is missing: users. On-chain data shows that despite high ratings, metaverse majors are struggling to build a user base, with some only having a few thousand at most, compared to the tens of millions of players playing simultaneously on Steam or Xbox. Live.

And it’s not because they’re new platforms: the PC gaming network Steam hit 1.5 million concurrent users six years after launch; Decentraland currently has less than 1,200 active users and has been open to the public for two and a half years.

We still have some way to go before the meta-verse becomes a $ 13 trillion option.

The technician’s opinion

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows support / resistance. (Damanick Dantes / CoinDesk, TradingView)

Bitcoin (BTC) remains in a troubled trading area as short-term indicators are neutral. The cryptocurrency could find support of $ 25,000 and $ 27,000 as its price continues to stabilize from last month’s sales.

BTC has fallen 4% in the last 24 hours.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has fallen back below the neutral 50 mark, indicating a slight momentum behind recent price increases above $ 30,000. On the weekly chart, the RSI is the most oversold since March 2020, which preceded an increase in cryptocurrency prices.

Nevertheless, the indicators may remain oversold for several weeks, especially in a downward price trend. This means the upside may be limited for BTC, with instant resistance at the 50-day moving average of $ 33,371.

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