The growing share of housing in total investment in France, “driven by the landing of yield rates for other asset classes and by borrowing rates that are still very low”, appears to be confirmed in early 2022, Ikory notes, in its latest financial report (see accompanying document).
Over the past financial year, the mass sales market has confirmed its appeal. After a record year in 2020 with an increase of 77% compared to 2019, mainly driven by transactions initiated by CDC Habitat, the trend continues in 2021 with a total amount invested of € 7.4 billion, an increase of 7% compared to 2020 and 85% since 2017 This alone represents 23% of investment volume for all asset classes combined in France, compared to only 12% in 2017. This new record has been increased to 80% of investments in Île-de-France, primarily due to AXAIM – I ‘Li transaction, which represents a total of 30% of investments in 2021.
For the year 2021, new construction will remain the main figure for investors with a share of 57%, ie. 43% more than 2017. This new appetite can be partly explained by the developers’ change in strategy (block sales against batch for batch) and should continue with the spread of ESG standards among many institutional investors and the implementation of the law on climate and resilience.
The share of managed real estate stabilized in 2021 at 15% of the total amount invested, corresponding to € 1.1 billion. However, the order of trifecta has evolved with the advent of co-living, which flirts with first place with a share representing 42% of the managed property just behind senior housing (45%).
Record on the old real estate market
With 1,178,000 sales in 2021, an increase of 15% over 2020, the housing market in the old sector has reached a record level. This increase is found especially in the price level with a national development for houses of 9% and for apartments of 4.6%. The phenomenon could be linked to a post-health crisis effect driven by a greater need for space and exterior and by the generalization of telework, but also to the sharp rise in prices in big cities, which has forced part of the more modest population to relocate. away from city centers.
Although there is a slight decrease in prices on the Paris market with an average of € 10,600 / m² (ie -0.9% intramurally and -0.8% in Île-de-France), the market in the regions is drawing its peak in game – especially suburban and rural areas – with significant growth in volumes (+15.4%) and prices (+9.4% for houses and +8% for apartments), notes Ikory.
“In the medium term, the rise in borrowing rates in early 2022 combined with the general inflation in construction costs may have a greater impact on volume and sales prices in the coming years,” analyzes Stéphane Imowicz, President of IKORY
116,000 new home sales
For the new housing market, the year 2021 ends positively with more than 116,000 completed sales, an increase of 15% compared to 2020. Listings for sale follow the same path with an increase of 21% over a year. The commercial offer, on the other hand, fell by 2% compared to 2020 and 4% compared to the ten-year average.
The new domestic market suffers from a shortage of products – despite a 19% increase in building permits over a year – which can be explained by rather scarce and expensive land, persistent demand, rising construction costs, too long administrative delays and too many complaints. jeopardizes the economic viability of the projects, Ikory lists in its note on the situation.
Residential properties in conversion
The French housing stock is subject to major legislative changes with on the one hand the publication of the law on climate and resilience in August 2021 and on the other hand the implementation of the RE2020 standard since 1 January 2022. new buildings.
Ikory observes an increase in sales of energy-impaired homes (8% for apartments, 7.4% for houses), showing owners’ willingness to prioritize their assets doomed to obsolescence.
The renovation of the existing stock is therefore a major challenge. “The restrictive aspect of the new rules that are in place will necessarily show up in the volume and price statistics in the coming months,” says Stéphane Imowicz. “Although we currently lack data to monitor these transformations, institutional and private owners are already in place to respond: greener park, arbitration of thermal sieves, energy renovation works, the market has understood what the problem is and is already busy finding answers . »