A quote from Al Moutanabi’s poem, uttered by the President of the Republic and the media policy sphere, is in the running. Yes, we have come to this point, to dissect the slightest sign, the slightest symbolism, the slightest hidden meaning of the things that Kais Saïed charges. At each new step in the process after July 25, we review the same dynamics. It must be said that the president cultivates secrecy and spares his effects of surprise. It’s up to the rest of the world to guess his next move. It must also be said that the channels with the current in place are practically interrupted. When the new so-called revolutionary and unprecedented approaches are what they are, it is up to us to adapt to them by grafting on presidential decoders.
This dynamic is therefore presented as follows: The president launches a word, the language element is taken up by the pages and the stories of the aficionados who embroider around, the rumor goes in a loop until it becomes clear, a few “explainers” walking around the media, everyone extrapolates and, above all, waits for the big boss’ decision to finally fall. Currently, we are in this phase of feverish inertia, of transient stagnation that heralds upheavals.
It is a verse by Al Moutanabi that caught the eye of the sphere. The decoders were set in motion and it was concluded that change would take place, an important announcement under aid. The president had linked his quote with a phrase he repeated several times: no recognition, no recognition …!
But what else will he do? What is he going to change? is not she beautiful “democracy” saiedienne by the way? Transparency and trust are the king, right?
Everyone has their own analysis. The president talks about entities he refuses to recognize. He wraps this up in his usual accusations of crime and conspiracy with foreign forces. Conclusion of Analysis No. 1: he should announce the dissolution of political parties or organizations that he considers guilty of treason. Kais Saïed has always proclaimed the disappearance of the parties as a historical reality necessary for a potential political renewal. Some of his “explainers” even swung “Daesh” to qualify the parties. Will he give it a try? It would really be too big to pass.
Analysis No. 2: The President would circumvent the chaos that could be caused by a clear dissolution of the parties by issuing a decree that would banish them. He swears by tailor-made legal texts. He has already announced his intention to completely change the election law. He has a precise idea of how the next election should be organized, and we have a very precise idea of what he thinks of the parties. All elements tend to say that he will try to ban them from participating in the election in the form we usually know. In addition, a very binding exclusion clause could appear in this new code and would allow it to automatically exclude a certain number of parties who, for example, are suspected of intelligence, or who are conducting business, or whose accounts are not in order, or if leaders are suspected of corruption … Legal time is too slow for the big boss, it would be a matter of avoiding this problem once and for all. The possibilities are endless, and at the point where we are, nothing should surprise us anymore.
There is also the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle during aid, which we are beginning to extrapolate on. For we must not forget that we always remain in the field of deduction, as the present power is hermetic and its gears abstrate. From the few excerpts that leak, we know that there are quarrels between the various clans that (poorly) surround the president. We also know that when clashes escalate, it will not necessarily bode well for any of the clans.
Gaining power can happen through an economic disaster, knowing how to handle power and manage state affairs is beyond the realm of chance.
Until something happens (or not), I wish you all a happy eid.